According to statistics from the most recently completed Supreme Court term, you have more than a snowball’s chance in you-know-where of getting a petition for writ of certiorari granted.
During the Court’s 2012 Term (the 2013 Term will be completed later next month) the Court disposed of a whopping 7602 petitions and granted only 92 petitions for oral argument – a rate of 1.21%. That figure does not count GVRs – the grant of a petition for certiorari, vacation of the lower court’s judgment, and remand of the case.
That doesn’t seem much better than a snowball’s chance, right? If we separate petitions into two commonly analyzed categories – paid petitions and petitions filed In Forma Pauperis (IFP) – the grant rate changes considerably.
During the 2012 Term, 82 of the 1503 paid petitions filed were granted – a rate of 5.46%. IFP petitions, which made up the bulk of the Court’s docket (80.2%), were granted at a rate of .01% (6099 IFP petitions were disposed of vs. the 10 that were granted).
Paid IFP Disposed 1503 6099 Granted 82 10 Percentage 5.46% .01%
Paid IFP Total Disposed 1674.3 6384.6 8058.9 Granted 71.8 11 82.8 Percentage 4.3% .17% 1.0%
The Court’s 2012 journal is available in full, here.
Following is a list of things oddsmakers have labeled as less than 4% likely to occur: